Chips, especially smart chips, are the core supporting new economic development and new infrastructure investment.
The global pandemic of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is a major test of the completeness and competitiveness of the smart
chip industry chain in various countries,and further highlights the importance of smart chips in global economic development. my
country must further overcome the impact of the global epidemic, grasp the "window period" to further promote the development
of the smart chip industry, accelerate the layout of the industrial chain, and further build a relatively complete smart chip industry
system to support the high-quality development of my country's economy and society.
The new crown pneumonia epidemic has delayed the recovery of the global smart chip industry, and even caused the industry to
further shrink. Affected by the slowdown in demand for solid-state storage, mobile phones, PCs and other terminals and global
trade frictions, the global semiconductor market sales in 2019 were US$412.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, and the
growth reached a new low in 10 years. With the global pandemic of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, in general, affected by the
epidemic, although the proportion of the smart chip industry will increase structurally, the probability of a decline in the overall
scale is extremely high. International research agency IDC predicts that in 2020 The probability that the global semiconductor
industry revenue will shrink sharply in 2018 is close to 80%.
The impact of the epidemic on the main links of the global smart chip industry chain shows high heterogeneity. The epidemic has
greatly affected normal international trade and resource circulation, and has also had a huge impact on the smart chip industry
with a highly segmented industrial chain.
(1) Upstream equipment manufacturing enterprises are dragged down by downstream demand, and their order volume and
operating income are affected. For example, the Dutch lithography equipment giant ASML lowered its revenue forecast for thefirst
quarter of 2020, reducing its revenue forecast by about 1/4, and canceled the $20 billion stock repurchase plan; material suppliers
were greatly affected, especially U.S. and Japanese companies that are in control in this field not only need to resolve the impact of
the epidemic on transportation and demand, but also face the impact of trade frictions between Japan and South Korea and Sino-
U.S. trade frictions. Some Japanese companies have relocated globally to consolidate its position in the industrial chain.
(2) Chip design companies are less affected by the epidemic, and telecommuting after home isolation has reduced the impact of the
epidemic to a certain extent; manufacturing companies need a high-clean environment, which is highly compatible with the living
environment required by the epidemic, and the industry production is relatively smooth . However, with the global epidemic, the
isolation and flow restriction policies generally adopted by various countries affect the transportation of materials such as silicon
wafers, photoresists, masks, electronic gases, wet chemicals, etc., and the continuity of production of related enterprises will be
affected. Larger impact; packaging and testing companies belong to industries with relatively high human investment in the smart
chip industry chain, and the impact of the epidemic will be more obvious, which will have a systematic impact on the supply cycle
of smart chips. In general, the design-manufacturing-packaging and testing chain is led by front-end design companies. In the case
of insufficient short-term demand, the counter-cyclical investment of design companies is restricted by the financial capabilities of
the company.
(3) Final consumer goods manufacturing enterprises are most directly affected. Economic slowdown and personnel and traffic control have affected both demand and supply. For example, Apple and Samsung have all delayed the release of new products.
While the epidemic has affected the global smart chip industry chain, it has further highlighted the importance of the chip industry
in economic and social development. my country should take advantage of its leading time in epidemic prevention and control,
increase policy support, accelerate the layout of the industrial chain and technological breakthroughs in key areas, achieve
overtaking on curves in some industrial links, and improve the autonomy of the industrial chain.
(Article source: China Social Science Network)